Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +39 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -28.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -23.9 (+15.1) | 150.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -28.2 (+10.8) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -21.8 (+17.2) | 150.2 (-5.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2023 | CONN 84 – 64 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#16) | -4.5 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#151) | -0.63 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#136) | -0.97 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.250 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 9.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.3% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 10.0% |
| DRB% | 84.6% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
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