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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tulane
@
Cincinnati
|
+12.7 | 134.9 | 88% | 68–60 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
+8.2 | 124.8 | 77% | 69–71 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Oral Roberts
|
+19.5 | 153.0 | 96% | 62–107 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Southern Utah
|
+6.4 | 149.6 | 72% | 91–81 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Montana
|
+0.9 | 140.2 | 53% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Utah Tech
|
-12.7 | 161.4 | 12% | 64–50 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Nevada
|
+6.8 | 164.5 | 73% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
UC San Diego
|
+11.3 | 128.6 | 85% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Oregon
|
+2.7 | 143.4 | 60% | 66–79 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Boston College
|
-2.0 | 140.4 | 43% | 91–65 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Indiana State
|
+1.9 | 140.6 | 57% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Northwestern
|
+0.7 | 143.2 | 52% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Marist
@
Iona
|
+12.5 | 144.5 | 87% | 66–69 | ✓ |
UCF
@
SMU
|
+0.5 | 149.0 | 52% | 60–72 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Cornell
|
+7.9 | 152.3 | 76% | 71–79 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Binghamton
|
-2.0 | 131.1 | 43% | 63–68 | ✗ |
Maine
@
NJIT
|
+17.5 | 123.7 | 94% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Valparaiso
|
+5.6 | 151.5 | 69% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Northern Iowa
|
+12.3 | 130.3 | 87% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Saint Louis
|
+8.3 | 147.2 | 77% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Pennsylvania
|
+2.0 | 143.8 | 57% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Penn State
|
-2.5 | 129.0 | 41% | 58–61 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Temple
|
-16.3 | 130.2 | 7% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Georgia Tech
|
-2.5 | 132.8 | 41% | 67–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.