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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
4–1 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
5 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona State
@
California
|
+4.8 | 125.7 | 67% | 50–74 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Nebraska
|
-12.3 | 156.1 | 13% | 87–79 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
+3.0 | 143.4 | 61% | 56–61 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-9.7 | 159.3 | 19% | 84–75 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Drexel
|
-2.3 | 141.1 | 42% | 61–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.