Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -3.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -1.8 (+3.2) | 142.0 (-25.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.7 (+2.3) | 146.5 (-29.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.9 (+3.1) | 145.9 (-28.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.2 (+2.8) | 145.6 (-28.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | DRKE 68 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DRKE 69 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MOST 83 – 80 DRKE |
| Dec 2, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 57 MOST |
| Jan 19, 2023 | MOST 65 – 62 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#81) | 7.4 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#168) | 0.70 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#134) | 1.05 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#197) | 0.524 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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