Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -9.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.3 (-2.7) | 153.7 (+5.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -8.8 (-0.2) | 152.8 (+6.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -8.0 (-1.0) | 153.1 (+5.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.7 (-3.3) | 153.7 (+5.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-26 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 0-11 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -22.5 (#358) | -8.3 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#345) | -2.16 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.99 (#344) | -3.05 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#310) | 0.425 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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