← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Missouri
@
Georgia
|
-3.6 | 158.9 | 37% | 70–80 | ✗ |
Florida
@
Arkansas
|
+3.7 | 154.3 | 63% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Mount St. Mary's
|
+4.4 | 122.9 | 65% | 61–39 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Maryland
|
+11.2 | 135.8 | 84% | 50–64 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-3.6 | 143.5 | 37% | 81–86 | ✗ |
St. Francis Brooklyn
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+4.6 | 167.9 | 66% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Temple
@
Tulsa
|
+4.2 | 126.5 | 65% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Purdue
|
+9.8 | 134.8 | 81% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Rhode Island
|
+4.4 | 134.5 | 65% | 89–91 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ball State
|
-0.4 | 151.5 | 49% | 75–62 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Toledo
|
+11.8 | 150.1 | 86% | 75–87 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Western Michigan
|
-11.6 | 139.3 | 15% | 76–69 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
St. John's
|
-0.9 | 158.6 | 47% | 84–93 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Illinois
|
+15.4 | 149.6 | 92% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Santa Clara
|
-2.2 | 129.6 | 42% | 76–73 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Louis
|
+16.3 | 145.1 | 93% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
Wagner
@
Mount St. Mary's
|
+4.4 | 122.9 | 65% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Quinnipiac
|
-3.5 | 138.0 | 38% | 70–74 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Pittsburgh
|
+3.0 | 145.2 | 61% | 74–73 | ✗ |
Sacred Heart
@
Central Connecticut
|
-0.9 | 146.2 | 47% | 82–70 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.5 | 143.1 | 59% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Evansville
@
Indiana State
|
+8.6 | 130.6 | 78% | 73–87 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Radford
|
+3.0 | 134.6 | 61% | 69–57 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Butler
|
-0.6 | 129.4 | 48% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.