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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.2 | 132.9 | 42% | 78–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 139.6 | 85% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 155.0 | 44% | 87–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.7 | 153.6 | 17% | 97–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.4 | 160.8 | 16% | 80–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 135.6 | 40% | 94–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 158.2 | 79% | 75–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 130.8 | 23% | 55–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 138.3 | 50% | 58–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 142.5 | 86% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 145.5 | 56% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 146.0 | 50% | 73–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 137.6 | 87% | 60–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.0 | 150.9 | 90% | 57–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 159.0 | 36% | 81–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 148.5 | 44% | 79–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 139.9 | 49% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.6 | 44% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 138.5 | 75% | 85–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.9 | 143.2 | 88% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 152.1 | 76% | 80–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 143.0 | 77% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 138.2 | 76% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 141.1 | 27% | 74–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 145.3 | 75% | 83–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 155.3 | 59% | 83–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 151.3 | 80% | 84–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 141.9 | 74% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 156.7 | 60% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.0 | 148.5 | 24% | 92–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 139.2 | 43% | 78–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 133.2 | 65% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.8 | 139.5 | 20% | 92–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 131.2 | 24% | 73–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 155.1 | 55% | 61–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 149.6 | 62% | 88–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.