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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia Southern
@
Tennessee
|
+24.3 | 147.8 | 90% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Duke
|
+9.0 | 147.9 | 82% | 68–89 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Cincinnati
|
+20.0 | 150.1 | 89% | 53–85 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+16.3 | 132.2 | 89% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Wright State
|
+5.5 | 158.2 | 65% | 91–84 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
NC State
|
+17.2 | 161.3 | 89% | 67–81 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Saint Peter's
|
+9.9 | 140.1 | 81% | 60–66 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-4.5 | 146.5 | 31% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Maryland
|
+17.8 | 144.3 | 89% | 65–105 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
South Florida
|
+16.5 | 162.8 | 88% | 86–104 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Radford
|
+12.8 | 138.8 | 87% | 56–73 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Sam Houston
|
+10.1 | 138.2 | 84% | 62–63 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Northern Iowa
|
+5.8 | 152.4 | 79% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Southern Illinois
|
+16.0 | 130.9 | 86% | 70–68 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Minnesota
|
+20.1 | 141.2 | 90% | 65–101 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
UIC
|
+9.7 | 131.1 | 82% | 70–68 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Georgetown
|
+15.1 | 133.5 | 89% | 54–71 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Boise State
|
+16.3 | 140.2 | 87% | 54–95 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Texas Tech
|
+10.6 | 147.5 | 85% | 76–82 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Oregon
|
+10.3 | 141.2 | 82% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Rice
|
+7.5 | 149.9 | 78% | 57–80 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Stony Brook
|
+0.7 | 137.4 | 48% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.