Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | NCAT +158 NCCU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -4.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.5 (-0.5) | 146.5 (-17.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -4.2 (-0.8) | 147.6 (-18.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -3.7 (-1.3) | 150.9 (-21.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -2.6 (-2.4) | 147.8 (-18.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | NCAT 69 – 54 NCCU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | NCAT 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Feb 28, 2021 | NCAT 55 – 53 NCCU |
| Feb 24, 2021 | NCAT 79 – 63 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 4-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#355) | -5.6 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.25 (#353) | -1.58 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.09 (#357) | -2.37 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#310) | 0.468 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 26.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.1% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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