Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Under |
| Money | NCSU -2000 UTM +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -15.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -17.2 (-3.2) | 161.3 (-13.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -14.4 (-0.4) | 164.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -15.6 (-1.6) | 164.4 (-16.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -16.0 (-2.0) | 165.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#63) | -2.8 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#34) | -0.23 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#33) | -0.72 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#46) | 0.469 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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