Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -900 PV +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -7.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.8 (+13.2) | 152.4 (-23.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -5.4 (+13.6) | 149.0 (-20.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.9 (+13.1) | 150.8 (-21.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -6.1 (+12.9) | 153.7 (-24.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#151) | -1.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#267) | 0.64 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#234) | 0.69 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#238) | 0.553 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 39.1% |
Game Analysis
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