Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1700 HOF +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +21 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -11.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -9.0 (+12.0) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -10.2 (+10.8) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.1 (+10.9) | 148.7 (+8.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -11.0 (+10.0) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#20) | 6.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#109) | 1.21 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#79) | 1.89 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#114) | 0.559 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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