Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | ORE -750 CBU +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -10.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -10.3 (+10.7) | 141.2 (-10.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -9.7 (+11.3) | 142.5 (-11.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -9.5 (+11.5) | 143.5 (-12.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -9.6 (+11.4) | 143.8 (-12.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#58) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#77) | 0.09 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#74) | 0.49 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#58) | 0.472 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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