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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
Arkansas State
|
+0.2 | 130.0 | 45% | 57–52 | ✗ |
William & Mary
@
Elon
|
+2.6 | 134.6 | 66% | 54–73 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Drake
|
+13.5 | 133.6 | 88% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.6 | 129.6 | 53% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Duke
|
+3.2 | 147.7 | 67% | 71–85 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Mercer
|
+5.3 | 155.9 | 73% | 52–88 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Northwestern State
|
+2.9 | 155.1 | 67% | 80–86 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+0.1 | 137.5 | 47% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+4.0 | 150.2 | 72% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-7.6 | 146.4 | 17% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Southern
|
+9.0 | 133.1 | 86% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
+0.0 | 133.8 | 57% | 52–65 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Oklahoma State
|
-0.2 | 137.4 | 54% | 69–74 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
USC
|
+5.2 | 137.5 | 72% | 58–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Air Force
|
+0.8 | 126.5 | 42% | 73–65 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+14.4 | 133.4 | 87% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Ohio
|
+0.9 | 151.2 | 58% | 73–90 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-2.9 | 139.8 | 33% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
-2.7 | 146.3 | 37% | 96–54 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Northern Illinois
|
-13.9 | 146.1 | 13% | 102–74 | ✓ |
App State
@
Georgia State
|
+5.4 | 137.2 | 65% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Richmond
|
+4.4 | 151.7 | 68% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
VCU
|
+1.4 | 134.9 | 63% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.