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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–1 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Michigan
|
+5.6 | 136.0 | 74% | 54–77 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia Tech
|
+7.8 | 140.7 | 82% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Butler
@
St. John's
|
+3.9 | 140.4 | 65% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Boston College
|
+0.1 | 142.3 | 48% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Davidson
|
+11.4 | 147.8 | 87% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Florida
|
+2.6 | 137.0 | 66% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Bowling Green
|
+10.8 | 151.4 | 84% | 88–64 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ohio
|
+8.5 | 139.1 | 81% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+15.5 | 146.9 | 89% | 63–96 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma
|
+7.5 | 136.6 | 79% | 46–82 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
+0.0 | 144.1 | 54% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grambling
|
+7.3 | 144.3 | 85% | 74–79 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
USC
|
+12.1 | 136.8 | 86% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
North Carolina
|
+1.6 | 146.3 | 62% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
+2.8 | 140.8 | 62% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Kentucky
|
-1.7 | 147.7 | 40% | 85–65 | ✓ |
VCU
@
George Washington
|
-9.2 | 147.9 | 18% | 84–77 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Fordham
|
-13.6 | 124.5 | 14% | 68–54 | ✓ |
Furman
@
The Citadel
|
-5.5 | 163.6 | 30% | 94–88 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Virginia
|
+10.7 | 129.3 | 87% | 68–80 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Florida State
|
+2.9 | 144.7 | 63% | 73–105 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.