In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–3 on winners spread MAE 10.4 22 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Georgia Southern @ Tennessee +23.9 147.9 91% 56–74 ✓
Hofstra @ Duke +10.2 148.3 80% 68–89 ✓
Bryant @ Cincinnati +18.6 147.5 90% 53–85 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +16.2 130.6 89% 60–89 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Wright State +6.3 155.6 75% 91–84 ✗
UT Martin @ NC State +14.4 164.7 88% 67–81 ✓
UMBC @ Saint Peter's +11.2 143.1 86% 60–66 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina A&T -4.2 147.6 30% 67–62 ✓
Alcorn State @ Maryland +16.6 142.4 88% 65–105 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ South Florida +15.0 158.2 87% 86–104 ✓
VMI @ Radford +12.1 139.9 86% 56–73 ✓
UL Monroe @ Sam Houston +8.2 139.1 80% 62–63 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Iowa +5.4 149.0 71% 55–74 ✓
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois +15.9 132.3 87% 70–68 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Minnesota +21.9 140.9 91% 65–101 ✓
Green Bay @ UIC +13.0 129.6 86% 70–68 ✗
Coppin State @ Georgetown +15.2 136.6 89% 54–71 ✓
Northwestern State @ Boise State +14.7 141.8 89% 54–95 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Texas Tech +11.8 144.8 84% 76–82 ✓
California Baptist @ Oregon +9.7 142.5 82% 55–76 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Rice +5.0 148.5 69% 57–80 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stony Brook +2.8 136.7 59% 78–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.