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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–1 on winners spread MAE 4.5 12 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Jacksonville @ South Carolina State	+0.3	146.8	48%	85–86	✓
Delaware @ Robert Morris	-3.4	145.2	33%	73–69	✓
Howard @ Pennsylvania	+4.8	154.8	69%	68–78	✓
Columbia @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-1.2	151.2	41%	87–83	✓
Yale @ Quinnipiac	+1.2	147.3	56%	73–66	✗
Stonehill @ New Hampshire	+15.5	149.5	89%	62–75	✓
Alabama A&M @ Samford	+18.6	153.8	90%	91–118	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Gonzaga	+24.9	138.1	91%	40–78	✓
Utah Tech @ Cal State Northridge	+2.7	142.3	64%	75–80	✓
New Orleans @ San Francisco	+17.6	142.5	90%	72–85	✓
Long Island University @ UMass Lowell	+17.1	147.4	90%	65–78	✓
Monmouth @ Seton Hall	+7.2	142.3	74%	61–70	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.