Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | UML -2000 LIU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UML -23.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -18.8 (-5.8) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -17.7 (-4.7) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -17.1 (-4.1) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -20.4 (-7.4) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2024 | UML 69 – 62 LIU |
| Dec 6, 2022 | UML 84 – 64 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 10-7 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#84) | -12.7 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#81) | -2.12 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#87) | -2.64 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#130) | 0.380 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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