Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LIU +800 UML -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +20 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -19.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -12.9 (-7.1) | 145.2 (+2.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -13.5 (-6.5) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -10.3 (-9.7) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -10.8 (-9.2) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2024 | UML 69 – 62 LIU |
| Dec 12, 2023 | UML 78 – 65 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-26 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 11-5 |
| Home | 2-10 | 17-0 |
| Away | 1-14 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#361) | 7.7 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#340) | 1.80 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.49 (#348) | 2.26 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#291) | 0.563 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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