Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
The Palestra · December 12, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PENN -5.5 Home covered
O/U 145.0 Over
Money PENN -225 / HOW +185
Model Predictions
Spread Total PENN win
Actual PENN +10 146 Won
Massey PENN -4.5 (+5.5) — —
Massey Totals — 162.1 (-16.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 79% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PENN -5.2 (+4.8) 150.3 (-4.3) 73% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PENN -4.8 (+5.2) 154.8 (-8.8) 69% ✓
Baseline ML PENN -5.1 (+4.9) 155.1 (-9.1) 72% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PENN -5.5 (+4.5) 153.8 (-7.8) 72% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PENN HOW
Overall 11-18 18-17
Conference 3-11 9-5
Home 9-6 9-4
Away 2-10 6-9
Neutral 0-2 3-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 74.5
Avg Pts Against 75.7 75.1
Massey -1.2 (#192) -0.8 (#182)
Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#198) -0.44 (#219)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.35 (#160) -0.28 (#195)
RPI 0.471 (#216) 0.488 (#186)
Shooting & Four Factors PENN HOW
FG% 46.7% 44.2%
3PT% 37.3% 35.3%
REB / G 38.0 37.2
OREB / G 11.8 10.6
AST / TO 1.20 0.72
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.9% 50.6%
TOV% 18.6% 21.4%
ORB% 33.0% 30.8%
FT Rate 18.9% 31.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.1% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 14.7% 15.1%
DRB% 73.1% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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