Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | PENN -225 HOW +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -5.2 (+4.8) | 150.3 (-4.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -4.8 (+5.2) | 154.8 (-8.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -5.1 (+4.9) | 155.1 (-9.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -5.5 (+4.5) | 153.8 (-7.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#192) | -0.8 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#198) | -0.44 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#160) | -0.28 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#216) | 0.488 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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