Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | SF -4000 UNO +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SF -21.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -19.9 (-6.9) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -17.6 (-4.6) | 142.5 (+14.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -19.9 (-6.9) | 142.5 (+14.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -20.3 (-7.3) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#45) | -7.1 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#61) | -1.46 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#58) | -1.74 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#43) | 0.402 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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