Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -41.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +38 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -39.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -27.1 (+10.9) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -24.9 (+13.1) | 138.1 (-20.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -36.6 (+1.4) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -37.7 (+0.3) | 138.2 (-20.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-2 | 1-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#27) | -22.0 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#41) | -2.61 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#37) | -3.67 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#37) | 0.422 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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