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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–3 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida International
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+22.7 | 153.2 | 91% | 60–94 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Dartmouth
|
+0.4 | 125.5 | 49% | 54–63 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Charleston Southern
|
-5.4 | 143.1 | 33% | 76–64 | ✓ |
App State
@
Queens University
|
-4.5 | 146.1 | 30% | 93–81 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Toledo
|
+12.5 | 151.5 | 87% | 87–88 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Mississippi State
|
+16.4 | 136.3 | 88% | 81–85 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Little Rock
|
+6.1 | 159.1 | 72% | 84–93 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Northwestern
|
+18.4 | 139.1 | 91% | 75–73 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Milwaukee
|
-5.3 | 144.3 | 25% | 80–67 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Alabama A&M
|
-4.4 | 151.9 | 34% | 93–82 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Louisville
|
+3.4 | 146.5 | 63% | 75–63 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
LSU
|
+7.9 | 144.4 | 78% | 56–74 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Auburn
|
+12.8 | 147.5 | 86% | 62–87 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
McNeese
|
+15.7 | 144.6 | 88% | 48–67 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Louisiana
|
+9.7 | 147.7 | 81% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Liberty
|
+14.1 | 142.7 | 88% | 52–74 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
UNLV
|
-16.4 | 148.6 | 13% | 64–79 | ✗ |
Denver
@
BYU
|
+21.7 | 156.2 | 91% | 74–90 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
San Francisco
|
+10.0 | 134.5 | 81% | 59–62 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Nevada
|
+8.9 | 134.9 | 79% | 55–72 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Santa Clara
|
-1.6 | 149.4 | 39% | 84–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.