Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -3000 UNCA +1250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +25 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -18.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.6 (+10.4) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.8 (+12.2) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.0 (+11.0) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -15.5 (+9.5) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#19) | -4.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#32) | -0.06 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#25) | -0.15 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#31) | 0.484 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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