Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | MSST -1700 MUR +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -19.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -16.6 (-12.6) | 138.7 (+27.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -16.4 (-12.4) | 136.3 (+29.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -17.6 (-13.6) | 136.0 (+30.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -17.3 (-13.3) | 138.3 (+27.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#26) | -2.1 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#37) | -0.70 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#24) | -0.63 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#26) | 0.426 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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