Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
| Money | UL -140 EKU +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UL -11.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -9.2 (+1.8) | 148.5 (-13.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -9.7 (+1.3) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -10.6 (+0.4) | 149.5 (-14.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -10.5 (+0.5) | 151.3 (-16.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#160) | -6.1 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#150) | -2.08 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#141) | -3.28 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.374 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 15.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 58.6% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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