Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -26.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
| Money | BYU -7000 DEN +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -27.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -23.6 (-7.6) | 157.3 (+6.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -21.7 (-5.7) | 156.2 (+7.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -26.6 (-10.6) | 154.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -26.2 (-10.2) | 154.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 82.1 |
| Massey | 23.6 (#2) | 1.4 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#16) | 0.53 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#15) | 0.24 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#17) | 0.502 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 45.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.06 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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