Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SF -550 SEA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SF -10.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -8.6 (-5.6) | 130.2 (-9.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -10.0 (-7.0) | 134.5 (-13.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -9.4 (-6.4) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -9.3 (-6.3) | 132.7 (-11.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SF 67 – 59 SEA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#49) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#59) | -0.02 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#57) | 0.18 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#56) | 0.482 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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