Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Event Center · December 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UAB -13.0 Home covered
O/U 154.0 Over
Money AAMU +600 / UAB -900
Model Predictions
Spread Total AAMU win
Actual UAB +11 175 Lost
Massey UAB -4.9 (-6.1)
Massey Totals 157.5 (+17.5)
Bradley-Terry 53%
Weighted B-T 57%
Baseline Plus ML UAB -4.5 (-6.5) 152.2 (+22.8) 28%
Baseline ML UAB -4.0 (-7.0) 152.6 (+22.4) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML UAB -4.4 (-6.6) 151.9 (+23.1) 34%
Efficiency Plus ML UAB -6.8 (-4.2) 152.8 (+22.2) 23%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 UAB 9667 AAMU
Nov 21, 2021 UAB 8641 AAMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AAMU UAB
Overall 12-23 23-12
Conference 9-9 12-6
Home 7-5 12-5
Away 4-15 7-5
Neutral 1-3 4-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.0 77.0
Avg Pts Against 75.8 75.6
Massey -14.3 (#354) -4.5 (#258)
Bradley-Terry -1.50 (#298) -0.60 (#234)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.10 (#302) -1.18 (#267)
RPI 0.396 (#321) 0.466 (#235)
Shooting & Four Factors AAMU UAB
FG% 37.9% 42.8%
3PT% 23.2% 26.8%
REB / G 35.1 38.0
OREB / G 12.7 13.0
AST / TO 0.57 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 40.9% 46.9%
TOV% 21.3% 17.3%
ORB% 31.1% 34.7%
FT Rate 34.8% 28.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.3% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 21.2% 15.8%
DRB% 65.2% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 36.1% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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