Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
| Money | LOU -195 ARST +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -4.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.2 (-14.2) | 150.8 (-12.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.4 (-15.4) | 146.5 (-8.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.8 (-14.8) | 147.5 (-9.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.7 (-15.7) | 151.1 (-13.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-11 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#263) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#289) | -1.34 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#286) | -1.83 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#307) | 0.409 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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