Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | LIB -1400 TNST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -15.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -16.5 (+5.5) | 139.8 (-13.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -14.1 (+7.9) | 142.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -13.6 (+8.4) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -14.6 (+7.4) | 141.0 (-15.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#66) | -2.6 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#71) | -0.52 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#70) | 0.03 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#71) | 0.430 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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