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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tulane
@
Cincinnati
|
+11.7 | 139.5 | 87% | 68–60 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
+7.2 | 132.5 | 77% | 69–71 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Oral Roberts
|
+14.2 | 151.8 | 88% | 62–107 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Southern Utah
|
+5.4 | 147.1 | 74% | 91–81 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Montana
|
+2.3 | 142.7 | 62% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Utah Tech
|
-9.7 | 154.8 | 18% | 64–50 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Nevada
|
+5.2 | 157.1 | 72% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
UC San Diego
|
+7.8 | 134.0 | 79% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Oregon
|
+2.3 | 145.9 | 66% | 66–79 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Boston College
|
-2.6 | 140.4 | 42% | 91–65 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Indiana State
|
+1.0 | 143.8 | 56% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Northwestern
|
+0.8 | 143.8 | 53% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Marist
@
Iona
|
+11.0 | 149.8 | 85% | 66–69 | ✓ |
UCF
@
SMU
|
+1.4 | 146.7 | 55% | 60–72 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Cornell
|
+5.3 | 148.8 | 74% | 71–79 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Binghamton
|
-3.3 | 137.1 | 38% | 63–68 | ✗ |
Maine
@
NJIT
|
+11.5 | 132.8 | 87% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Valparaiso
|
+3.6 | 148.1 | 68% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Northern Iowa
|
+9.2 | 135.7 | 82% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Saint Louis
|
+5.1 | 147.8 | 74% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Pennsylvania
|
+0.6 | 144.3 | 56% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Penn State
|
-2.5 | 133.5 | 42% | 58–61 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Temple
|
-11.9 | 134.8 | 17% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Georgia Tech
|
-2.0 | 136.3 | 47% | 67–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.