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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LSU
@
Alabama
|
+8.8 | 159.8 | 82% | 60–78 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Pittsburgh
|
-2.6 | 138.5 | 38% | 72–83 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Missouri
|
+7.2 | 139.9 | 79% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
La Salle
|
-9.0 | 144.9 | 20% | 75–82 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Providence
|
+1.6 | 146.1 | 59% | 60–43 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Rhode Island
|
+1.4 | 135.5 | 55% | 63–62 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Wofford
|
+6.2 | 148.0 | 78% | 84–80 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Western Carolina
|
+0.3 | 148.4 | 50% | 74–67 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
Mercer
|
+1.7 | 145.1 | 58% | 70–64 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
The Citadel
|
-4.5 | 155.0 | 32% | 85–66 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+10.8 | 143.3 | 86% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+1.2 | 139.0 | 53% | 67–58 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
Wichita State
|
+9.9 | 139.2 | 83% | 67–75 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+9.2 | 141.5 | 82% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-10.6 | 141.5 | 17% | 84–75 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
St. John's
|
-4.4 | 153.1 | 29% | 59–70 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
NC State
|
-5.8 | 136.6 | 27% | 64–57 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Creighton
|
+11.7 | 147.1 | 87% | 86–79 | ✗ |
SMU
@
Tulsa
|
+0.1 | 135.4 | 53% | 65–63 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
TCU
|
-3.9 | 144.2 | 35% | 78–81 | ✗ |
Tennessee State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+3.1 | 135.2 | 65% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
+1.8 | 147.2 | 60% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Merrimack
|
+2.5 | 140.9 | 62% | 62–68 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Radford
|
+9.3 | 138.8 | 85% | 61–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.