Betting Lines
| Spread | HALL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +138 HALL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +17 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -0.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.6 (-18.6) | 146.1 (-43.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.7 (-17.7) | 142.1 (-39.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.2 (-18.2) | 146.5 (-43.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.5 (-18.5) | 146.4 (-43.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 10-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | 10.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#67) | 1.67 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#67) | 2.48 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#88) | 0.557 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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