Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -700 UCF +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -9.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -9.2 (+4.8) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -7.9 (+6.1) | 138.0 (-2.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.5 (+3.5) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -9.2 (+4.8) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#57) | 3.3 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#61) | 1.09 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#56) | 1.66 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#101) | 0.534 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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