Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | URI +163 VCU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -0.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -1.2 (-2.2) | 138.0 (-13.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -0.6 (-1.6) | 137.2 (-12.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -1.4 (-2.4) | 135.5 (-10.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -1.6 (-2.6) | 136.0 (-11.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | VCU 84 – 75 URI |
| Jan 22, 2025 | VCU 81 – 57 URI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VCU 88 – 67 URI |
| Feb 16, 2023 | VCU 55 – 54 URI |
| Feb 9, 2022 | VCU 73 – 64 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#76) | 10.7 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#100) | 1.92 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#76) | 2.51 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.588 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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