Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK -125 SFPA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -2.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -2.5 (+3.5) | 140.9 (-10.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.0 (+4.0) | 140.3 (-10.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -2.2 (+3.8) | 140.9 (-10.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -2.3 (+3.7) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#241) | -4.7 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | -0.54 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#177) | -0.50 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#180) | 0.478 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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