Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MER -125 ETSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -1.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.7 (-7.7) | 145.1 (-11.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.2 (-5.8) | 141.7 (-7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.2 (-7.2) | 145.1 (-11.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.4 (-7.4) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | 4.5 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#119) | 0.57 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#111) | 1.09 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#103) | 0.550 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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