Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +275 UVA -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -6.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -5.8 (-1.2) | 136.6 (-15.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.4 (-2.6) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.1 (-2.9) | 132.9 (-11.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.4 (-2.6) | 135.8 (-14.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 13-4 |
| Home | 7-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#78) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#128) | 2.65 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#119) | 4.07 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#168) | 0.615 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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