Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Mid-American Conference · Stroh Center · February 4, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread BGSU -13.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money BGSU -1000 / WMU +850
Model Predictions
Spread Total BGSU win
Actual WMU +6 146 Lost
Massey BGSU -13.7 (-19.7) — —
Massey Totals — 143.0 (+3.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 97% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML BGSU -10.8 (-16.8) 143.3 (+2.7) 86% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BGSU -10.1 (-16.1) 141.8 (+4.2) 83% ✗
Baseline Plus ML BGSU -10.3 (-16.3) 144.4 (+1.6) 84% ✗
Baseline ML BGSU -10.9 (-16.9) 143.9 (+2.1) 82% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2026 WMU 88 – 79 BGSU
Jan 21, 2026 BGSU 72 – 54 WMU
Mar 8, 2025 WMU 64 – 63 BGSU
Jan 8, 2025 BGSU 83 – 79 WMU
Mar 6, 2024 BGSU 73 – 65 WMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BGSU WMU
Overall 14-12 5-16
Conference 10-8 4-12
Home 4-7 2-9
Away 10-3 3-7
Neutral 0-2 0-0
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 77.1 63.1
Avg Pts Against 74.9 73.5
Massey 2.8 (#126) -8.2 (#292)
Bradley-Terry 0.20 (#160) -2.67 (#331)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.02 (#168) -2.90 (#319)
RPI 0.524 (#126) 0.380 (#330)
Shooting & Four Factors BGSU WMU
FG% 42.1% 42.9%
3PT% 32.6% 31.0%
REB / G 37.9 33.0
OREB / G 12.1 7.8
AST / TO 1.18 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.2% 48.5%
TOV% 14.4% 20.5%
ORB% 29.8% 23.1%
FT Rate 24.0% 15.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 50.1%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 14.3%
DRB% 70.1% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 20.1%

Game Analysis

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