Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -400 LSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -7.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -8.8 (+9.2) | 159.8 (-21.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -6.6 (+11.4) | 157.6 (-19.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.0 (+10.0) | 158.0 (-20.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -8.7 (+9.3) | 158.7 (-20.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#7) | 12.4 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#21) | 1.84 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#15) | 2.44 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#8) | 0.598 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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