Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +550 UNCG -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +19 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -6.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.5 (-14.5) | 155.0 (-4.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.3 (-14.7) | 155.3 (-4.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -5.1 (-13.9) | 157.0 (-6.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -5.0 (-14.0) | 156.0 (-5.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 1-8 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#223) | 4.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#195) | 0.99 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#186) | 1.26 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#201) | 0.561 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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