Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -500 UPST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -11.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -9.3 (-7.3) | 138.8 (-14.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -10.1 (-8.1) | 135.2 (-11.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -9.0 (-7.0) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -8.7 (-6.7) | 138.5 (-14.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#172) | -9.6 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#208) | -1.92 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#210) | -2.24 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.457 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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