Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +160 SMU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -1.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -0.1 (-2.1) | 135.4 (-7.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -0.0 (-2.0) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -0.1 (-1.9) | 136.0 (-8.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.3 (-2.3) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | SMU 103 – 70 TLSA |
| Jan 19, 2023 | SMU 79 – 76 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | SMU 92 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 12, 2022 | SMU 83 – 58 TLSA |
| Feb 24, 2022 | SMU 75 – 61 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-2 |
| Away | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#98) | 9.5 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#53) | 2.05 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#69) | 2.67 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#82) | 0.540 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.