Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | AMCC +1000 SFA -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -11.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -10.6 (+1.6) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -10.3 (+1.3) | 139.3 (+19.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.1 (+1.1) | 142.2 (+16.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.5 (+2.5) | 144.5 (+14.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SFA 60 – 58 AMCC |
| Feb 17, 2026 | SFA 78 – 68 AMCC |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SFA 69 – 60 AMCC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFA 78 – 64 AMCC |
| Dec 7, 2024 | AMCC 67 – 48 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-19 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 12-3 |
| Home | 4-8 | 10-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#334) | -0.0 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#343) | -0.18 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.38 (#347) | -0.58 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#341) | 0.488 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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