Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +450 VILL -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -6.9 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -4.4 (+15.4) | 153.1 (-24.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.1 (+15.1) | 144.9 (-15.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.6 (+14.6) | 150.4 (-21.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.1 (+14.1) | 151.0 (-22.0) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 11-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#86) | 15.9 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#71) | 3.68 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#75) | 4.64 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.619 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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