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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–5 on winners spread MAE 8.1 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulane @ Cincinnati +11.6 141.1 85% 68–60 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma +6.5 132.7 77% 69–71 ✓
Omaha @ Oral Roberts +15.7 151.8 87% 62–107 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Southern Utah +5.7 148.7 71% 91–81 ✗
Weber State @ Montana +1.9 142.8 67% 72–74 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech -8.9 154.2 18% 64–50 ✓
New Mexico @ Nevada +5.1 156.8 74% 70–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +7.8 135.1 79% 64–72 ✓
Utah @ Oregon +2.4 145.6 65% 66–79 ✓
North Carolina @ Boston College -2.0 141.4 37% 91–65 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State +0.3 144.9 50% 71–76 ✓
Michigan State @ Northwestern +0.0 141.5 52% 73–67 ✗
Marist @ Iona +10.5 148.2 85% 66–69 ✓
UCF @ SMU +2.0 145.8 60% 60–72 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +5.8 151.7 70% 71–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -3.3 136.8 43% 63–68 ✗
Maine @ NJIT +11.4 132.3 88% 66–69 ✓
Illinois State @ Valparaiso +3.0 149.9 65% 76–81 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +7.9 134.5 82% 61–83 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis +5.1 146.3 72% 69–76 ✓
Brown @ Pennsylvania +0.1 145.2 58% 73–77 ✓
Indiana @ Penn State -1.8 135.4 48% 58–61 ✗
Houston @ Temple -10.9 133.7 16% 66–61 ✓
Louisville @ Georgia Tech -2.3 136.7 44% 67–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.