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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.3 | 148.2 | 30% | 83–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 157.2 | 87% | 78–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 124.8 | 39% | 50–52 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.2 | 145.4 | 14% | 76–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 155.2 | 42% | 86–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 152.4 | 90% | 63–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 132.2 | 55% | 50–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 156.7 | 78% | 91–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 147.9 | 72% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 136.1 | 89% | 51–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 158.8 | 40% | 95–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 143.3 | 72% | 56–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 148.2 | 41% | 75–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 143.0 | 46% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 143.8 | 75% | 62–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 131.4 | 54% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 145.6 | 81% | 45–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 140.0 | 86% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.3 | 132.6 | 16% | 73–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 136.5 | 89% | 54–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 155.1 | 86% | 72–66 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.