Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | STAN +150 USC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -1.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -0.2 (-5.8) | 143.4 (-5.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.1 (-4.9) | 143.2 (-5.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -0.3 (-6.3) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -0.3 (-6.3) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2024 | STAN 99 – 68 USC |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USC 93 – 79 STAN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | USC 85 – 75 STAN |
| Jan 28, 2022 | STAN 64 – 61 USC |
| Jan 11, 2022 | STAN 75 – 69 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#55) | 14.3 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#58) | 2.20 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#61) | 3.23 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#29) | 0.617 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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