Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -300 MSST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +16 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -9.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.0 (+7.0) | 146.6 (-40.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.0 (+10.0) | 142.1 (-36.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -9.0 (+7.0) | 146.0 (-40.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.6 (+6.4) | 145.6 (-39.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#17) | 7.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#45) | 0.91 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#48) | 1.57 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#45) | 0.518 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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